I'm going to make this simple - I expect the DJIA to hit 23,200 before or by August 19, 2020 at the latest.
Further, I won't explain how I reached this conclusion today. Instead, I'm going to write a post (probably today) and put it on to publish after the close on 8-19-2020.
That post will explain how I reached my conclusion.
Let's see what happens.
If you find this post valuable please donate.
Recently I wrote about the DJIA and the In Between - the gap between 26,713 and 26,963. In fact, the day I posted the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the day above 27,000.
That post was followed up by another which concluded with:
"As markets open we wait and watch to see which door the DJIA will go through. Will it open the door that takes the market through the interim high of 27,110.98 past 27,213 to accelerate higher, perhaps to 30,000 or above as some anticipate?
Or does the DJIA jiggle the door knob only to find that it is locked and the only door that opens leads to the basement back down to 18,213.65 or below?
Given the choice between blaming China / COVID-19 or Cycles, I'd choose cycles 100% of the time to pin the blame on the current movement of the DJIA. If you're interested in learning more about my view about the Pieces of the Stock Market Programming then you should check out this post.
While markets love making fools out of those who dare to prognosticate their movements, the previous interim high for the DJIA at 27,110.98 is the probable interim high for this market near-to-medium-term. How long are we talking about? A few days to a few months.
Back in December, before I disappeared myself from Twitter I wrote:
Viewed as simulation / narrative a 2020 market decline would make for a far more interesting political contest.
Reagan contended with a tough market and economy before things turned for the better.
Linear motion and improvement is not the norm.While many on Twitter in December of 2019 had expectations that a great stock market and economy would sweep President Trump into a re-election in a landslide, I thought the more interesting narrative of a correction and close election would emerge. It did in spades.
There may still be some who expect a V-Shaped Recovery and Dow 30,000 right around the corner. I'm not one of them. My expectation is that with continuing economic strain caused by renewed COVID-19 hot spots, current and future lock-downs, escalating tensions with China, and the 2020 election not in the bag for President Trump the highest probability move, in my opinion, is lower for the markets - especially the DJIA which is tied to the more traditional brick and mortar economy.
Maybe the wily folks predicting Dow 30,000 are right, but I think their dreams of a V-Shape Recovery powered by Acme products is about to meet the trash bin.
If you found this post valuable please support me.
Or donate CRYPTO
Long-term the DJIA is in a trading range which started at 15,713 and extends to 35,713 (based on the numbers of Martin Armstrong. But don't blame him for my interpretation of his work.)
Through the rest of this week we should be concerned with two sets of price ranges. First, the range the DJIA just jumped the gap from:
1- 26,713
3 - 26,463
5 - 26,213
7 - 25,963
9 - 25,713
2 - 25,463
4 - 25,213
6 - 24,963
8 - 24,713
And the next higher range:
1- 28,963
3 - 28,713
5 - 28,463
7 - 28,213
9 - 27,963
2 - 27,713
4 - 27,463
6 - 27,213
8 - 26,963
While jumping the gap from in between 26,713 and 26,963 is important shorter term the long-term numbers are more daunting:
1 - 35,713
3 - 33,213
5 - 30,713
7 - 28,213
9 - 25,713
2 - 23,213
4 - 20,713
6 - 18,213
8 - 15,713
While the DJIA may have stuck the landing above 27,000, can it stick the landing above 27,213?
(Stick, Stick Man - Get it?)
It has been a long and windy road getting here:
1 - 31,213
3 - 30,963
5 - 30,713
7 - 30,463
9 - 30,213
2 - 29,963
4 - 29,713
6 - 29,463
8 - 29,213
And...
1 - 28,963
3 - 28,713
5 - 28,463
7 - 28,213
9 - 27,963
2 - 27,713
4 - 27,463
6 - 27,213
8 - 26,963
And...
1 - 26,713
3 - 26,463
5 - 26,213
7 - 25,963
9 - 25,713
2 - 25,463
4 - 25,213
6 - 24,963
8 - 24,713
And...
1 - 24,463
3 - 24,213
5 - 23,963
7 - 23,713
9 - 23,463
2 - 23,213
4 - 22,963
6 - 22,713
8 - 22,463
And...
1 - 19,963
3 - 19,713
5 - 19,463
7 - 19,213
9 - 18,963
2 - 18,713
4 - 18,463
6 - 18,213
8 - 17,963
We have seen a lot of twists and turns on our way to where we are today.
The DJIA reached an all-time high of 29,568.57 (nearly 29,713 level) and fell 39 places to 18,213.65 (almost exactly 18,213 level) as the economy was crushed in unprecedented fashion by the COVID-19 shutdown.
Then, in rapid fashion the market moved up 36 places from 18,213.65 (18,213 level) to 27,110.98 (27,213 level) as a new interim high before slowly sliding lower.
As markets open we wait and watch to see which door the DJIA will go through. Will it open the door that takes the market through the interim high of 27,110.98 past 27,213 to accelerate higher, perhaps to 30,000 or above as some anticipate?
Or does the DJIA jiggle the door knob only to find that it is locked and the only door that opens leads to the basement back down to 18,213.65 or below?
Perhaps tomorrow or Friday we'll learn if crossing above 27,000 from the In Between was a first step on the journey to challenge 30,000, or whether it was a market head-fake right before the longs found out they had not cleared the gap to 27,000 and instead, were momentarily suspended in mid-air about to plunge to new depths.
via GIPHY (Meep Meep!)
If you found this post valuable please support me.
Or donate CRYPTO
After more than a decade studying markets / prices / cycles it is clear that there are natural levels of price support and resistance in markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is interestingly in what we'll call the In Between. What exactly is this In Between? We live in a Universe driven by cycles. These cycles are the sum of sine waves - a visual representation of vibrations.
One school of thought is that these vibrations are the echos from the Big Bang believed to originate the Universe. These sine waves can combine constructively to enhance a trend or cycle. They can also collide destructively and change the direction of a cycle. One of the concepts I encountered several years into studying prices and cycles was that incorporating concepts of electromagnetism and fields helped explain many non-obvious support and resistance levels that other techniques could not.
The construction of my original price grid was based on a number of different concepts including the Enneagram, electromagnetism, Vortex Math, and Modulo 9 (which relates back to the Enneagram and cycles).
While some may be familiar with the Enneagram as related to personality types, Gurdjieff and his treatment of the Enneagram was much richer and applied to cycles, natural and man-made processes, rmusic, vibration and cycles, and presented the concept of gaps, or what I have called the In Between.
The DJIA, as this is being written is in between two ranges. One of these ranges is 24,713 to 26,713 or:
1 - 26,713
3 - 26,463
5 - 26,213
7 - 25,963
9 - 25,713
2 - 25,463
4 - 25,213
6 - 24,963
8 - 24,713
The higher range is 26,963 to 28,963 or:
1 - 28,963
3 - 28,713
5 - 28,463
7 - 28,213
9 - 27.963
2 - 27,713
4 - 27,463
6 - 27,213
8 - 26,963
One of things to note is that there is a gap of 250 in between 26,713 and 26,963. The other thing you may have noticed is that each of the levels reduces (sums to) a Modulo 9 number. For instance, 28,963...
2+8+9+6+3 = 28
2+8 = 10
10 (drop the zero) = 1
The cynical might view this as some kind of numerology. It is not. In fact, utilizing Modulo 9 numbers is central to my method of predicting future prices along with powers and imaginary numbers.
The In Between, in the context of investing, is one of many misunderstood influences, often mistaken for price / market manipulation. The In Between doesn't always, but can sometimes pair with psychological levels (round numbers, e.g. 27,000). Humans tend to lend extra psychological weight to round numbers. Because of our Base-10 Number System, we also focus on multiples of ten, e.g. 30,000.
The In Between represents a gap between two levels requiring an extra input of energy / information to continue the expansion of price. In all probability these gaps are naturally occurring and related to strange attractors.
(Image Source)
My interpretation of these strange attractors is that they are apparently chaotic, but have some type of order that is non-obvious. This is a similar concept to the model I use to predict price movements where the process could be described as ordered randomness. In other words, there is something akin to a program governing seemingly random processes.
At the gaps between various ranges price movements are chaotic and do not appear to have any clear pattern. From tick to tick, watching the price move up and down, you would expect the odds of predicting the next movement up or down would be no better than chance. But over time intervals, utilizing Modulo 9 numbers, powers, imaginary numbers within the context of positive and negative spin and a coordinate system (complex plane) an order begins to emerge.
The larger discussion of my system and price prediction will have to be left for another day. But without the concept of spin and imaginary numbers there is no predicting or projecting price direction.
The more limited discussion is that the DJIA price currently resides in the In Between. It awaits some impulse of energy / information to propel it higher or lower. Some expect it to move higher, crossing the 30,000 level. Others expect a retest of the 18,213.65 level low of March. What mysterious force or strange attractor will cause it to cross above the gap to 26,963 (or above) or move lower to 26,713 (or below) is not known.
For investors, the In Between tests their nerves and patience. They project their fears and biases on that gap, filling it with their hope or anxiety when the numbers move for or against them.
Interestingly, the DJIA has also filled the gap down formed after the interim high achieved under 27.6K. Breaking above the horizontal black line on the chart above 26,989.99 could prove psychologically and technically important and provide the market with some upside momentum.
Similar to the railway warning above of "Mind the Gap" those trading the markets must also mind the gap or In Between. It is too easy for each of us to fill the seemingly empty space with our own expectations. That often leads to mistakes and regrets. Within the In Between and also in between every single price within a price range is another set of nested In Betweens. For example, below 26,963 there is another gap at 26,846. So whether the market closes above or below 26,846 might indicate (at least short-term) whether or not the market has sufficient energy / information to level up. Another example of a gap is in between 27,213 and 26,963 at 27,096. These aren't levels of support or resistance that are readily apparent looking at our price ranges or price levels, but they come into play frequently.
These additional In Betweens can be viewed as resulting from one of many sine waves that sum together to form larger price cycles. Or, if viewed from the point of view of numbers as a programming language, you can understand that prices will frequently pivot around these unseen levels / gaps / In Betweens.
For now, the DJIA price continues to move in between 26,713 and 26,963. My suspicion is that at present there is not much additional new information / energy to carry price across the gap above 26,963. The 27,000 level may well prove to be both psychologically and cyclically difficult to cross for now.
However, the path of price within the In Between follows rules, programs and attractors strange and unknown to us and makes fools of those who think they know what happens within these gaps. They are gaps of energy. They are gaps of information. They are gaps of our knowledge and understanding how the Universe works. And sometimes on our journey to acquire a deeper understanding of how the world around us work, we must admit that we are in between knowing and now knowing. We are in a state between ignorance and knowledge.
We travel on the waves originating from the Big Bang - the explosion that created everything. The waves combine, collide and form the underlying patterns and cycles that govern the Universe. Sometimes the waves are calm and sometimes they destroy anything in their path. These wave are the order driving apparent chaos. Some believe these waves emanate from the Creator who said, "Let there be light!" And we know that light consists of electromagnetic waves. If you believe in a Creator, then everything can be seen as flowing out of that initial utterance commanding that light come into existence. But whether the waves originated from the Creator or resulted from the Big Bang the results are (largely) the same. We are living In Between, unsure of where we are going. We are governed by forces we do not fully understand. We live in a space where we simultaneously know more and less than we believe. This applies to our own lives, our understanding of the world around us, and to markets. Perhaps one day we will achieve an understanding of those waves and bask in the light of understanding.
If you found this post valuable please support me.
Or donate CRYPTO