On June 8, 2020 the DJIA reached an interim high of 27,580.21. After that it had two down days before gapping down at the opening and then ending the day at 25,128.17. Since then it has largely been capped under $27K with a few exceptions.
For reference I would suggest reading the following posts:
I wrote in DJIA Fails at the Gap:
I am still of the opinion that the DJIA simply doesn't have that extra bit of information or additional energy input to justify it pushing past $27K on its way to $30K at this moment.There may still be some who expect a V-Shaped Recovery and Dow 30,000 right around the corner. I'm not one of them. My expectation is that with continuing economic strain caused by renewed COVID-19 hot spots, current and future lock-downs, escalating tensions with China, and the 2020 election not in the bag for President Trump the highest probability move, in my opinion, is lower for the markets - especially the DJIA which is tied to the more traditional brick and mortar economy.
Beyond merely asserting that the DJIA isn't likely to get to $30K soon, I have climbed out on a limb to state that by August 19, 2020 the DJIA will reach 23,200. I'm not stating my reasons for now, but on the same day that I predicted 23,200 by 8-19-20, I had already written and scheduled a post for that same date with the reasons why I believe it will happen.
On the one hand, the DJIA hasn't really done anything to support the idea of moving down to 23,200. On the other hand, I believe The Momentum Heuristic lends credence to the idea that the DJIA by not moving strongly up is effectively moving backwards:
Over two weeks away - August 19, 2020 - is a lifetime in markets. Price could move quite far in either direction during that time. For that matter, price could just continue to drift around. But, I have my own methods of predicting the price direction and potential extent of those movements. Additionally, the numbers I use do indicate that we are due for some kind of turn or price movement around 8-19-20. It isn't out of the question that I am too early or wrong - sometimes those things are functionally the same. I am quite often a bit too early. Despite that tendency, I am heavily leaning in the direction that The Momentum Heuristic will rule the day and that in an economy that requires constant growth that these small gains and sideways moves of the DJIA will soon result in a significant and clear reversal lower.Given the shark-like nature of U.S. Stock Markets - keep moving or die - a lack of momentum or very weak upside bias can be thought to equal moving backwards or going lower in terms of price. It is a very imprecise way of looking at markets, but I find it to be a useful shortcut in light of the thousands of inconsistent and almost nonsensical bits of information that news and financial media bombard the public with daily.
