DJIA Evening Update 12-18-2018
Markets Projections 12-18-2018
On the 17th I made 3 separate projections for the DJIA, NASDAQ and SP500. I projected each to be up today and in each case was correct.
Market Projections 12-19-2018
- DJIA up
- NASDAQ up
- SP500 up
Bowling With Bumpers
Sometimes it's easier to bowl when you have some bumpers to protect you from the gutter balls. Let's review our levels for the DJIA, NASDAQ and SP500.
DJIA
- 12,288 - 14,336
- 14,336 - 16,384
- 16,384 - 18,432
- 18,432 - 20,480
- 20,480 - 22,528
- 22,528 - 24,576
- 24,576 - 26,624
- 26,624 - 28,672
- 28,672 - 30,720
NASDAQ
- 6,758.4 - 6963.2
- 6963.2 - 7,168
- 7,168 - 7,372.8
- 7,372.8 - 7,577.6
- 7,577.6 - 7,782.4
- 7,782.4 - 7,987.2
- 7,987.2 - 8,192
- 8,192 - 8,396.8
- 8,396.8 - 8,601.6
SP500
- 1,228.8 - 1,433.6
- 1,433.6 - 1,638.4
- 1,638.4 - 1,843.2
- 1,843.2 - 2,048
- 2,048 - 2,252.8
- 2,252.8 - 2,457.6
- 2,457.6 - 2,662.4
- 2,662.4 - 2,867.2
- 2,867.2 - 3,072
Markets Nearing Support?
Given the above long-term levels, they may be - at least temporarily - near some support. The DJIA closed 12-18-2018 at 23.675.14 which is within the 6th of its 9 levels. There has been psychological support around 24,000 and more support near 23,808. Below that, there appears to be some additional psychological support near 23,500. The bottom of the 6th level is 22,528. Once the DJIA climbed over 26,951.81, then closed under 26,624, it targeted the 5th level - at approximately 22,016.
Looking at the NASDAQ, it closed at 6,783.91 on 12-18-2018. This is the 1st of 9 levels ranging from 6,758.40 to 8,601.60. The NASDAQ is on the bubble - 6,758.40 represents the line between the current 1st level and the previous 9th. So, there is the danger that price could break below that level. Having said that, it would take a monthly close below 6,425.60 to set in motion a more substantial decline in the NASDAQ. A monthly close below 6,973.60 will open up the possibility of the NASDAQ slipping into the previous 9th level targeting 6,681.60. The current 1st level does offer better potential support than the NASDAQ has seen since slipping beneath 7,475.20 back in November.
The SP500 closed at 2,546.16, up a mere 0.22% for the day on 12-18-2018. That was enough, however, to make our projection that it would move up. 2,546 falls within the 7th level of the SP500. On its face, the SP500 appears to be the weakest of the markets as opposed to the DJIA and NASDAQ. Under pressure the market could move below 2,483.20 or even 2,457.60. There is potential support near 2,468.75 and the expectation would be that a move below that level down to near 2,457.60 could see a bounce higher. On the other hand, if the SP500 shows strength it could push toward 2,585.60. The SP500 is just far enough away from its 6th level and potential underlying support that it could have a negative day even if the DJIA and NASDAQ close positive for the 19th. Still, the projection for the SP500, like the DJIA and NASDAQ, is that they will finish up tomorrow 12-19-2018.
Will the Fed Spike the Punch?
So, we await tomorrow to see if the Fed spikes the punch bowl with some go-go juice or just punches the markets in the gut again with another rate hike. There's nothing like an FOMC meeting to mess with market projections.