Terry Kinder

Some Market Perspective

A little perspective on where the current markets are:

DJIA - 23,995.95

Levels -

1. 12,288 to 14,336
2. 14,336 to 16,384
3. 16,384 to 18,432
4. 18,432 to 20,480
5. 20,480 to 22,528
6. 22,528 to 24,576
7. 24,576 to 26,624
8. 26,624 to 28,672
9. 28,672 to 30,720

NASDAQ - 6,971.48

Levels -

1. 6,758.40 to 6,963.20
2. 6,963.20 to 7,168
3. 7,168 to 7,372.80
4. 7,372.80 to 7,577.60
5. 7,577.60 to 7,782.40
6. 7,782.40 to 7,987.20
7. 7,987.20 to 8,192
8. 8,192 to 8,396.80
9. 8,396.80 to 8,601.60

S & P 500 - 2,596.26

Levels -

1. 1,228.80 to 1,433.60
2. 1,433.60 to 1,638.40
3. 1,638.40 to 1,843.20
4. 1,843.20 to 2,048
5. 2,048 to 2,252.80
6. 2,252.80 to 2,457.60
7. 2,457.60 to 2,662.40
8. 2,662.40 2,867.20
9. 2,867.20 to 3,072

At this point the DJIA is trading within its 6th level. The 6th level is frequently an area where prices can accelerate or decelerate. The Dow has crossed above and below the 22,528 level several times. Given the market pullback and concerns of further deterioration, it should be viewed with optimism that the market has held within this level.

The NASDAQ had fallen below the 6,758.40 level into its lower range of 4,915.20 to 6,758.40. It is now within the next higher range of 6,758.40 to 8,601.60 - more specifically within the 2nd level, or 6,963.20 to 7,168 of the larger range. While it could slip back into the first level of 6,758.40 to 6,963.20, as long as it holds above 6,758.40 on a weekly basis that would help alleviate concerns of the NASDAQ slipping back down into the lower range below 6,758.40.

Finally, the SP500 at 2,596.26 is within its 7th level. It is sandwiched in between support near 2,457.60 and resistance near 2,662.40. There exists the potential for the S & P 500 to remain range-bound within the 7th level - trading more or less sideways. A weekly close below 2,457.60 would potentially invalidate the idea the SP500 is going to trade within a range for a while.

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#MarketWatch Major indexes start new year of trading lower as concern over China's economic slowdown spooks Wall Street

— Greta Wall (@GretaLWall) January 2, 2019

That's Now How It Works

via GIPHY

But that's now how it works...it's not how any of this works. I don't say that to pick on Greta or anyone else. Human beings are problem solvers and seek the root cause of events. We're naturally curious, walking, talking, pattern-recognition devices. Unfortunately, we get our wires crossed all the time.

Stocks Went Up (or Down) Because of X

It's commonplace to read financial news -- whether about stocks, bonds, commodities, cryptocurrencies, etc. -- that states with seemingly absolute certainty the root cause of every rise or fall of the markets. Markets consists of thousands of stocks and millions of investors from around the world. How can the financial media possibly know why an entire market moved? They can't, but they report their reasons as if they were facts. They aren't.

Why Do Markets Move

In a very general way here are three reasons markets move:

1. Capital Flows - Martin Armstrong has written extensively on this topic at his site.
2. Confidence - Again, Armstrong has covered this in his Economic Confidence Model or ECM.
3. Numbers/Cycles - Numbers and Cycles are part of the fabric and pattern of the Universe. If you view numbers as a programming language controlling events instead of a means of measuring phenomena, you'll progress much more rapidly toward a better understanding of the mechanism that moves markets.

Daily Stock Market Projections and More

I'm still getting in the groove of writing these posts. However, if you're just looking for daily projections of which way the DJIA, SPX, and NASDAQ (IXIJ) will move on a daily (also monthly or yearly) basis, then please follow me on Twitter where I Tweet about these topics and much more.

Cause and Effect

Just as a teaser, consider cause and effect in markets. Media and alternative media often tend to sensationalize financial news for clicks. We're told that markets move purely based on manipulation, are saved by the Plunge Protection Team, are bound to crash because of the Fed and on and on and on. We're led to believe that market numbers (price, levels of DJIA, SPX, IXIC, etc.) flow from events. What if that isn't true. As a thought experiment, what if the opposite is true? What if events flow from the numbers? What if numbers are the programming language of the Universe?

Is That How it Works?

On this site, we're on a journey to discover just how the numbers work. This is deeply intertwined with the shape and formation of the Universe. It goes in some pretty strange directions like the proof of Fermat's Last Theorem. What will, hopefully, set this set apart (and the Twitter feed listed above) is that the projections flow from the ideas that will be outlined here. These ideas will be tested over and over and over again. You can judge for yourself whether or not you believe the ideas as well as whether the results that flow out of them are valid. By the end, you should be able to determine whether you prefer the financial media analysis pointing to single causes for market movements, or something that may appear bewilderingly complex at first glance, but ultimately seeks to get to the heart of what is moving the markets daily, monthly, yearly and beyond.

Markets Projections 12-19-2018

Projections of higher closes for the DJIA, NASDAQ and SP500 were incorrect. No excuses. The numbers said one thing and the results were something else. FOMC days are difficult days to project markets, but I go with the numbers where they lead and make no attempt to put any extra spin on them in light of known events.

Market Projections 12-20-2018

• DJIA - Up
• NASDAQ - Down
• SP500 - Up

Family and Holidays

Have family in town over Christmas so my output here will likely be reduced over the next few days. Will try to post should any significant market events warrant. There will likely not be any market projections for a few days.

Merry Christmas!

I hope you have a Merry Christmas!

via GIPHY

DJIA Evening Update 12-18-2018

Markets Projections 12-18-2018

On the 17th I made 3 separate projections for the DJIA, NASDAQ and SP500. I projected each to be up today and in each case was correct.

Market Projections 12-19-2018

• DJIA up
• NASDAQ up
• SP500 up

Bowling With Bumpers

Sometimes it's easier to bowl when you have some bumpers to protect you from the gutter balls. Let's review our levels for the DJIA, NASDAQ and SP500.

DJIA

1. 12,288 - 14,336
2. 14,336 - 16,384
3. 16,384 - 18,432
4. 18,432 - 20,480
5. 20,480 - 22,528
6. 22,528 - 24,576
7. 24,576 - 26,624
8. 26,624 - 28,672
9. 28,672 - 30,720

NASDAQ

1. 6,758.4 - 6963.2
2. 6963.2 - 7,168
3. 7,168 - 7,372.8
4. 7,372.8 - 7,577.6
5. 7,577.6 - 7,782.4
6. 7,782.4 - 7,987.2
7. 7,987.2 - 8,192
8. 8,192 - 8,396.8
9. 8,396.8 - 8,601.6

SP500

1. 1,228.8 - 1,433.6
2. 1,433.6 - 1,638.4
3. 1,638.4 - 1,843.2
4. 1,843.2 - 2,048
5. 2,048 - 2,252.8
6. 2,252.8 - 2,457.6
7. 2,457.6 - 2,662.4
8. 2,662.4 - 2,867.2
9. 2,867.2 - 3,072

Markets Nearing Support?

Given the above long-term levels, they may be - at least temporarily - near some support. The DJIA closed 12-18-2018 at 23.675.14 which is within the 6th of its 9 levels. There has been psychological support around 24,000 and more support near 23,808. Below that, there appears to be some additional psychological support near 23,500. The bottom of the 6th level is 22,528. Once the DJIA climbed over 26,951.81, then closed under 26,624, it targeted the 5th level - at approximately 22,016.

Looking at the NASDAQ, it closed at 6,783.91 on 12-18-2018. This is the 1st of 9 levels ranging from 6,758.40 to 8,601.60. The NASDAQ is on the bubble - 6,758.40 represents the line between the current 1st level and the previous 9th. So, there is the danger that price could break below that level. Having said that, it would take a monthly close below 6,425.60 to set in motion a more substantial decline in the NASDAQ. A monthly close below 6,973.60 will open up the possibility of the NASDAQ slipping into the previous 9th level targeting 6,681.60. The current 1st level does offer better potential support than the NASDAQ has seen since slipping beneath 7,475.20 back in November.

The SP500 closed at 2,546.16, up a mere 0.22% for the day on 12-18-2018. That was enough, however, to make our projection that it would move up. 2,546 falls within the 7th level of the SP500. On its face, the SP500 appears to be the weakest of the markets as opposed to the DJIA and NASDAQ. Under pressure the market could move below 2,483.20 or even 2,457.60. There is potential support near 2,468.75 and the expectation would be that a move below that level down to near 2,457.60 could see a bounce higher. On the other hand, if the SP500 shows strength it could push toward 2,585.60. The SP500 is just far enough away from its 6th level and potential underlying support that it could have a negative day even if the DJIA and NASDAQ close positive for the 19th. Still, the projection for the SP500, like the DJIA and NASDAQ, is that they will finish up tomorrow 12-19-2018.

Will the Fed Spike the Punch?

So, we await tomorrow to see if the Fed spikes the punch bowl with some go-go juice or just punches the markets in the gut again with another rate hike. There's nothing like an FOMC meeting to mess with market projections.

via GIPHY

There will not be a DJIA Afternoon Update today. Will do the Evening Update.